Fargo, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

213
FXUS63 KFGF 271913
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
213 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms after 4 PM
  this afternoon into the early overnight period.

- Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms may develop again
  Saturday, with better chances towards far southeast North
  Dakota and west central Minnesota in the late afternoon and
  early evening.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 201 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Stratus still lingers over portions of the Red River Valley into
Minnesota, keeping temperatures on the cooler side. West of
here, skies are clearing with moisture advection being noted by
dew points well into the 60s. This will set the stage for
thunderstorms late this afternoon / tonight.

Mid level shortwave is viewable on water vapor in eastern MT
moving into southern SK, eventually into MB. This along with
daytime heating will help spark thunderstorms around mid
afternoon from near Minot toward Bismarck.

Latest high resolution guidance continues to favor discrete
supercell potential upon initial development before growing
upscale into linear thunderstorm complex (MCS). There is still
a chance discrete supercells move into western Devils Lake basin
late this afternoon before merging into the linear complex. If
this occurs, large hail up to golf ball sized along with gusty
winds will be possible. Cannot rule out a brief supercell
tornado at this time, however, the window for tornado is very
narrow within Devils Lake basin compared to central ND
(generally before 7 PM). The favored scenario continues to be a
linear complex moving from within eastern ND working its way
south or southeast through the evening / overnight hours into
the central and/or southern Red River Valley into west-central
Minnesota by sunrise Saturday. Main hazard would be gusty winds
up to 70 mph.

UPDATE
Issued at 649 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Stratus is persisting across much of our area with a clearing
in the northern Red River Valley. This shouldn`t impact
forecast highs as the low clouds are expected to clear this
afternoon with plenty of opportunity for daytime heating with
late seasonal sunset. There are a few clusters of showers and
embedded thunderstorms near northwest ND and another in northwest
SD that have been struggling to hold together as they move east
away from the moist/unstable axis where they developed. There is
a low chance (less than 20%) a few light showers hold together
into our western CWA later this morning, but for now I held off
on adjusting PoPs based on current trends.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

...Synopsis...

Westerly zonal flow across the Northern Plains will be in place
over the next few days. An open mid level trough currently
over the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies will slowly
progress east, with low amplitude SW flow supporting increasing
moisture/instability and several rounds of potential severe
convection today and Saturday, with lower severe potential
Sunday as drier/stable air arrives. Saturday will be the warmest
day with moderate to locally high heat risk as temperatures
reach the upper 80s ahead of the main cold front and Tds
increase to the upper 60s/near 70 at some locations. Behind this
trough ridging builds to the west and amplifies, while our
region remains predominantly within NW flow until late next
week. This favors near seasonal temperatures and much lower
chances for thunderstorms or severe weather through mid week. By
late week the ridge flattens, with much higher spread in
ensemble clusters on potential waves that could bring low severe
chances back to the region at the end of next week (5% probs
with some machine learning systems).

...Severe risk for this afternoon into tonight...

Initially this afternoon deeper BL moisture is shown to advect
and pool in our west towards central ND. Steep mid level lapse
rates with an EML advecting into the region combines to support
ML CAPE values 2500-4000 J/KG and veering hodographs along our
far western CWA late in the afternoon/early in the evening. This
would support potential for discrete convection/supercells and
some CAMs are showing this along a war frontal zone just to our
west towards the Devils Lake Basin. Capping however and less
certain forcing today lowers confidence in initiation and
eventual evolution. There is no surprise then that CAMs show
high run-run spatial and track evolution. The majority of CAMs
support some form of MCS eventually developing upstream or
locally over our CWA and progressing southeast through the
evening (some slower and lingering into the overnight). MUCAPE
2000-3000 J/kG and effective shear 35-45kt coincide with the LLJ
developing this evening/overnight which would support
organizing and maintenance of an MCS if it does develop from a
merger of upstream convection.

In the scenario where supercells develop in our west large hail,
damaging winds, and some tornado threat would exist (favored
closer to the surface backing along the warm frontal zone in
central ND early in the event). Severe wind to 70 mph and hail
to 1.5" would be the primary threat with the more common
solutions for our area (clusters and MCS propagation west to
southeast).

...Severe risk for Saturday...

There is a low chance for severe hail and wind Saturday morning
in the event there is lingering convection from the overnight
period as elevated instabilty and high effective shear will
remain in place. After any early morning convection ends (if it
is still ongoing) there should be a lull until peak heating.
Capping plays a role in limiting organized severe convection
initially, with it weakening late afternoon after this front is
in our southeast CWA (based on a consensus of guidance). In
proximity and southeast of this frontal zone there will be some
supercell potential once again, though shear profiles/hodographs
would tend to favor left movers in our southeast (hail/wind
primary threats). Farther west and north there is still a low
chance for a severe thunderstorm capable of marginally severe
hail/wind before sunset as elevated instabilty will be in place
as the main trough progresses east and height falls increase.
Coverage as resolved continues to be a question for any
convection, with the best signal in the far southeast part of
our CWA late afternoon/early evening.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 201 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

MVFR ceilings still linger within portions of the Red River
Valley into Minnesota including KGFK, KTVF, and KBJI. By 23Z,
these ceilings are forecast to lift/diminish.

Between 01Z and 12Z, scattered thunderstorms are forecast to
move from eastern ND into west-central MN. Either -TSRA or VCTS
have been included in TAFs, with respective time period denoting
when storms are most likely near that location. Some
thunderstorms may bring erratic, gusty wind in excess of 35kt
in addition to lightning. This is particularly true for sites
like KDVL and KFAR.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CJ/DJR
DISCUSSION...DJR
AVIATION...CJ